Football Good news for Atleti, bad news for PSG and Juve
The business end of the 2020/21 season is approaching and the league leaders across Europe are looking to make the final push towards silverware.
Currently, Atletico Madrid, Manchester City, Inter, Lille and Bayern Munich lead the way in Spain, England, Italy, France and Germany respectively.
But, who’ll be top at the end of May? The CIES Football Observatory have tried to answer this question by projecting the remainder of each season in Europe’s top leagues.
“The projection was calculated using a statistical model taking into account shots on target and from the box attempted or conceded, ball possession, as well as teams’ own passes and those of opponents in the opposite third of the pitch,” they explain.
Here, then, is how the statisticians expect Europe’s top leagues to finish, as well as Spain’s second division.
The prediction in Spain is for Diego Simeone’s side to win the league for the first time since 2013/14. Meanwhile, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Sevilla would take the Champions League spots and Huesca, Real Valladolid and Elche would be relegated.
The CIES Football Observatory expect Real Mallorca and Espanyol to finish the job and secure automatic promotion. They’re currently the leaders and are expected to remain so. Almeria, Leganes, Rayo Vallecano and Sporting Gijon would then battle it out in the relegation playoffs.
The two Manchester teams currently lead the Premier League table and are expected to do so at the end of the season too, with Pep Guardiola set to win another English title. Perhaps the most eye-catching prediction here is that Tottenham wouldn’t even qualify for the Europa League.
It’s not a big surprise for Bayer Munich to be tipped to win the Bundesliga title, but the fact that Borussia Dortmund are predicted to finish outside the Champions League spots will take some by surprise. Meanwhile, Schalke are expected to finish dead last.
Juventus are aiming for 10 in a row, but are predicted to finish third by the model. Meanwhile, Inter would pip their city rivals AC Milan to the title by two points.
Paris Saint-Germain are not expected to win the Ligue 1 title, but not because it would go to current leaders Lille. The prediction for France is for Lyon to claim top spot, which would bring them their first championship since 2007/08.